20-year Current Market Outlook reflects 4.1 percent increase in new airplane deliveries over 2015 forecast
Boeing projects a demand for 39,620 new airplanes over the next 20 years, an increase of 4.1 percent over last year’s forecast. Boeing released its annual Current Market Outlook (CMO) on the first day of the 2016 Farnborough International Airshow, estimating the total value of those new airplanes at $5.9 trillion.
“Despite recent events that have impacted the financial markets, the aviation sector will continue to see long-term growth with the commercial fleet doubling in size,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “We expect to see passenger traffic grow 4.8 percent a year over the next two decades.”
The single-aisle market will be especially strong, with low-cost carriers and emerging markets driving growth. 28,140 new airplanes will be needed in this segment, an increase of more than 5 percent over last year.
“There’s no question the heart of the single-aisle market is around the new Boeing MAX 8 and the current 737-800. Airplanes that size already account for 76 percent of the global single-aisle backlog, and our products have the clear advantage in that space.”
On the widebody side, 9,100 airplanes are in the forecast, with a large wave of potential replacement demand in the 2021- 2028 time frame. Boeing projects a continued shift from very large airplanes to small and medium widebodies such as the 787, 777 and 777X.
With cargo traffic forecasted to grow at 4.2 percent per year, Boeing projects the need for 930 new freighters and 1,440 converted freighters.
|
New Airplane Deliveries Through 2035 |
|||
|
Airplane type |
Seats |
Total deliveries |
Dollar value |
|
Regional jets |
90 and below |
2,380 |
$110 billion |
|
Single-aisle |
90 – 230 |
28,140 |
$3,000 billion |
|
Small widebody |
200 – 300 |
5,100 |
$1,350 billion |
|
Medium widebody |
300 – 400 |
3,470 |
$1,250 billion |
|
Large widebody |
400 and above |
530 |
$220 billion |
|
Total |
——— |
39,620 |
$5.9 trillion |
The Asia market, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries over the next two decades.
|
New Airplane Deliveries Through 2035 |
|
|
Region |
Airplane deliveries |
|
Asia |
15,130 |
|
North America |
8,330 |
|
Europe |
7,570 |
|
Middle East |
3,310 |
|
Latin America |
2,960 |
|
Africa |
1,150 |
|
C.I.S. |
1,170 |
|
Total |
39,620 |
Boeing’s Current Market Outlook is the longest running jet forecast and regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the aviation industry. The full report can be found at www.boeing.com/cmo.
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